Monday, October 5, 2009

A More Efficient Hybrid?

Will the flywheel overtake the battery in the hybrid of tomorrow? Quite possibly!

If you have ever ridden a bicycle or watched a potter's wheel, you have seen a flywheel in action. When you pedal a bike, the wheels continue to spin even when you are not pedaling because the pedal energy has been stored and then released through the wheel.

Although flywheels have been known since ancient time, only now has their automotive potential become apparent.

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In an article by Gizmag.com, Williams Formula 1 (F1) racing was looking for a solution to capture, store and use brake force energy (Kinetic Energy Recovery System KERS). While they had considered the typical battery solution, but found that a flywheel was lighter and more efficient. Were that the whole story, it would be great, but wait, there's more!

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Williams created a separate company, Torotrak, to apply the flywheel KERS system to automobiles and found, surprisingly, that buses behave in a manner similar to F1 race cars. The similarity is found in the stop-start nature of buses and time between energy capture and release in F1 cars.

Here is a video explaining the flywheel's use in F1 racing.



What makes this concept economically efficient, and could possibly spell the end to the battery hybrid is that it can be retrofitted to existing transmissions and is more efficient. From the article:

“Our solution offers a much shorter pay back time on investment and does not reduce the number of passengers that can be carried,” explains Chris Brockbank of Torotrak. “It is also a fundamentally more efficient approach as energy remains in the mechanical state; with electrical regeneration there is an efficiency loss at each state change from mechanical to electrical to chemical and back again.”

Consider the economic benefits of a flywheel system versus a chemical battery. The flywheel is lighter, generally made of recyclable materials, and uses less hazardous materials than batteries. Additionally, they can be easily (relatively speaking) retrofitted onto existing transmissions. Finally, there are fewer components. Although I am huge fan of the hydraulic hybrid, the need for a direct drive transmission is slowing its development. However, if the flywheel technology proves itself, the need for hydraulic hybrids may no longer exist.

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In the examination of hybrids, like any other capital investment, one has to consider if the money spent will provide larger returns. When considering a technology that can possibly deliver a 30% improvement in fuel economy and can reasonably be retrofitted to existing automobiles, it may make sense. I look forward to seeing the results of the continued studies and will report back with any updates.


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Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Proof that Al-Qaeda is a Bunch of A-holes

In case you weren't sure, Al-Qaeda is now officially a bunch of A-holes.

CBS News reports
that the recent attempt on the life of Saudi counter-terrorism chief, Prince Mohammed Bin Nayef, used a technique from drug smugglers, though novel to homicide bombers.

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"Taking a trick from the narcotics trade - which has long smuggled drugs in body cavities - Asieri had a pound of high explosives, plus a detonator inserted in his rectum. This was a meticulously planned operation with al Qaeda once again producing something new: this time, the Trojan bomber."

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Although this is a humorous take on a very serious subject, notice that the enemy is changing his tactics. While Al-Qaeda continues to be a bunch of cowards, they now reduce themselves to the level of drug smugglers to commit murder.

Should you be concerned? Damn straight! Unless and until the world community crushes this heinie-stuffing goon squad, more bloodshed will occur. Call on your political leaders to use not just force, but overwhelming force to crush this enemy now.

President Teleprompter, listen to your theater-area commanders and send the necessary troops to finish the job.

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Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Government Knows Best You Dummies!

In case you didn't know it, "The American public…just like your teenage kids, aren’t acting in a way that they should act." Thank you for the insult and condescension Secretary Chu!

Dr. Steven Chu, Secretary of the Department of Energy, made the statement above, quoted in the Wall Street Journal, at a Smart Grid conference. His remarks mirror the Democrat party line which is that government knows best, and citizens should just sit down and shut up.

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What has this to do with economics? Simply, everything! From the moment you wake until the moment you sleep, you make economic decisions. Whether it is turning the light on in the middle of the night when going to the bathroom, or having a midnight snack, those decisions have economic consequences.

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Would you be willing to let a bureaucrat mandate no lights may be turned on between 10:00pm and 6:00am? Would you be willing to pay a tax for opening your refrigerator after 1:00am? Of course not! As an adult, you reserve the right to make your own decisions. However, the current ruling party in the US believes you lack the intellect and knowledge to make the "right" decisions.

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While I generally support energy conservation through proper insulation, caulking, and other low-dollar, high-return solutions, I don't believe anybody has the right to force me to do it. Economic common sense and simple arithmetic demonstrated I should put in higher efficiency HVAC units when I remodeled my house, as well as Energy Star doors. I didn't put up solar panels, nor did I install a windmill, because they didn't make economic sense.

When government thinks it is smarter than its citizens, it is doomed to make poor decisions with horrific consequences. Consider Sen. Max Baucus's "health care" plan. Buy insurance or we will tax you $3800. Were I a 23 year old male, with excellent health, I may not want to buy health insurance and the government has no business telling me I must. In short, all citizens must have the freedom to make their own economic decisions.

I will leave you with a quotation to help distill in your mind what the current Congress and President are thinking:

"We are going to take things away from you on behalf of the common good."

Was that: (A) Joseph Stalin, (B) Ronald Reagan, (C) V.I Lenin, or (D) Hillary Clinton?

If you want to be secure in papers, property, and person, it is incumbent upon you to speak up! Contact your representatives in Congress and remind them of your right as an adult to make up your own mind, and that includes whom you vote for in the 2010 elections. If you like bureaucrats making decisions for you, stick with President Teleprompter and his gang. If you like making up your own mind, consider an alternative.

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Friday, September 4, 2009

A Different Point of View on Unemployment

Another 216,000 jobs lost, but the employment picture is brighter? Only Joe Biden thinks the recession is over with 15 million people out of work!

In the United States, current unemployment, as reported by the Department of Labor, stands at 9.7% (ending August, 2009), the highest unemployment rate in 26 years, and expected to rise to 10%.

Approximately 15,000,000 people are out of work, yet we hear from many politicians that the economy is picking up, or that the employment situation is settling down.

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I have a different point of view. What the unemployment numbers tell us is companies continue to shed jobs, maybe at a slower rate, but they not hiring folks in any great numbers. Factory inventories are about empty and order rates for goods and services are seriously down, thus no demand for increased production. Further, the likelihood of a major market correction becomes more likely as unemployment continues to rise.

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The American consumer is aware of the untenable amount of leverage they have taken on, and are adjusting to lifestyle of diminished spending. Further, great concerns about a dramatic increase in taxes, both from Cap and Trade, as well as the end of the "Bush Tax Cuts", and the potential destructive force of Obamacare are crushing consumer optimism and a willingness to invest in capital goods.

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What this means, is that until a period of reasonable certainty and stability returns, we are in for a very long ride. While credit markets may be easing, US home prices are still far below their highs, which is actually a good thing. Additionally, with decreased overall demand for goods and services, companies are in no hurry to hire. Without a marked increase in employment, don't count on the American consumer to go back to its spending habits.

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The only bright spot in this dismal period of unemployment is the potential for entrepreneurial growth. Usually, periods of high unemployment lead to smart, out of work people getting together to come up with goods and services adjusted for the new economic reality. While I hope this is the case, I think the fear around major tax increases are somewhat depressing interest in "going it alone." The lesson to take from all of this is the lesson of history. Left wing parties, regardless of country, always bring in high taxes and anti-business agendas. Productive capacity is taken from the private sector and put in the hands of inefficient governments. Forget power to the people, it becomes domination by the state.

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Quantifying Phone Tag

How much does playing phone tag cost your business? More than you think! You can get your costs under control with some simple tools.

For my quant friends, how do you measure the cost of phone tag? It is really quite simple. Assume your estimated hourly rate is $50. Each day you spend one hour on the phone, and only 50% of the calls were conversations. The cost of non-productive calls is $25 a day. 260 days times $25 equals $6500 per year, per employee! Ouch!

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Fortunately, RingCentral and now Google (to a limited extent), have products that help keep you connected and receiving calls, whether you are on your cell phone, home phone, or vacation home phone.

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RingCentral utilizes your internet connection to handle the call hand offs. It allows you to keep a central number, including area code, and then forwards the call to one of a set of numbers you provide. Additionally, RingCentral also provides similar products for fax solutions.

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Not to be out done, Google is soon to offer a service called Google Voice. Although it is only available by invite only (?), it is said to offer call forwarding, screening, voice mail, etc. It appears this will be a "free" service, but I don't have anything definitive as of 01 September 2009.

From Google:

Google Voice is a service that gives you one number for all your phones, voicemail that is easy as email, and many enhanced calling features like call blocking and screening, voicemail transcripts, call conferencing, international calls, and more.

Clearly, missed phone calls are costing companies thousands of dollars a year, as well as lost productivity, lost business opportunities, and general frustration. Fortunately, with products from RingCentral and Google, businesses can better manage these costs.

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Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Government Health Care is Rationed Health Care!

If the government runs health care, it will ration it. Bureaucrats will set the quantity and price of care, limiting what can be consumed. This is also known as a command economy.

For those of you not familiar with command economies, they currently exist in Cuba, China, and North Korea. Command economies for health care exist in most of Western Europe, Japan, many other states.

If much of the developed world relies on a system of government-owned and operated health insurance/delivery, why shouldn't the US?

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Simply stated, the US is the most demand-driven economy in the world. The understanding of liberty and personal freedom in the US means citizens spend their money on the goods and services they demand, in the quantities they demand, with the government butting out. While this statement isn't 100% accurate, it is pretty close.

In 2009, most US citizens have health insurance, and most are satisfied with it. There is a dispute about how many residents don't have health insurance, yet US law requires equal treatment of all patients, regardless of the ability to pay.

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Americans recoil, rightly, when they read about rationed care in Canada, namely this story out of the Vancouver Sun:

Vancouver Coastal — which oversees the budget for Vancouver General and St. Paul’s hospitals, among other health-care facilities — is looking to close nearly a quarter of its operating rooms starting in September and to cut 6,250 surgeries, including 24 per cent of cases scheduled from September to March and 10 per cent of all medically necessary elective procedures this fiscal year.

So, if you were one of the 6,250 cases to have waited for surgery between September '09 and March '10, well, sorry about that. Perhaps you should get in your car and drive to Seattle and get the surgery you need tomorrow. While I am not going to relate every horror story from socialized medicine, such as the case of the women delivering on a sidewalk due to no ambulance, or the case of Oregon paying for assisted suicide, but not cancer treatment, rather, it is to highlight the loss of liberty in socialized medicine.

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As I have stated above, in socialized medicine, the government, who delivers the service, also sets the quantity to be consumed, and must pay for it. Government will set the budget based on political constraints, and not on the medical needs of individuals. Government also becomes free to regulate other elements of people's lives in the name of "health care." In short, socialized medicine is overwhelming regulation of human behavior and destruction of personal liberty.

To help you better understand this point of view, let late President Ronald Reagan explain it to you. This speech, given in 1961, is critical to understanding what is at stake in today's socialized medicine debate.



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Friday, August 14, 2009

BusinessWeek Blows it on India

The Communists may be gone, but the Trinamool Congress Party isn't much better! West Bengal is struggling and all Trinamool has to show is running out Tata and good jobs, but that's not the story out of BusinessWeek.

Mehul Srivastava writes, wrongly:

With its Communist leadership out, the former Calcutta is poised for quick growth

It would appear that Mr. Srivastava hasn't read any of the articles written about the poverty pimps of the Trinamool Congress Party, particularly the Premier of Poverty, Mamata Banerjee.

For review, here are the articles I have written on the subject (here, here, here, and here). Clearly, you will find that Trinamool and Banerjee are not friends of business, nor are they true friends of the poor. Rather, they are true friends of power and themselves! Great fares to Europe and beyond on Air France!

It is quite a laugh to read Banerjee's statement:

Unless [the Communists] are ousted from power, no development is possible in West Bengal.

While there may be some truth in that statement, it has more to do with Banerjee and her cronies finding a way to line their pockets than it does with the Communists. Let's be clear, communism has never delivered on any of its promises, except for tyranny. West Bengal is proof of that, particularly, as BusinessWeek gets right, "Corruption, electricity shortages, and a rejection of foreign capital have left the city in rough shape."

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However, BW gets it wrong when they claim the Communists "seized" land. The farmers were to be paid for their land, and Tata was going to provide new, better paying jobs for the regrettably poor subsistence farmers. At least until Banerjee organized a violent mob.

While there is no evidence that either she or her party were involved in a plant manager's murder, Banerjee was behind the agitation directed at Tata Motors in Singur.

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For now, the problem of good government isn't solely the realm of West Bengal. Rather, it is a great shame that so many suffer at the hands of petty politicians. People are living in grueling poverty, subsistence farming, dirty water and limited educational opportunities. Perhaps Trinamool can stand up to encourage a positive business climate that will create a tide of prosperity. Sadly, they won't, as a struggling underclass provides them what they love most, power.

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Friday, August 7, 2009

A Dose of Reality with those Unemployment Numbers

Hooray, only 247,000 lost their jobs in July 2009! What terrific news! Woo hoo! As one of those 247,000 people, give me a break.

People are so eager to see an improved economy that they are willing to accept such a figure as good news. I say, "rubbish!" Look at the facts, despite the fact that unemployment is a lagging indicator of the economy, it should tell everyone that companies don't think the worst is over.

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Additionally, this number should tell you that both demand for goods and services continue to decrease, and employers are not willing to start hiring again.

Here is some of the cheer leading being reported by the Wall Street Journal:

"The economy is at the turning point from the recession as the labor market is starting to heal," said Chris Rupkey, economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.
"

But recent data suggest GDP will start growing again this quarter. The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index ticked higher in July and is now consistent with GDP growth of a little over 2%.

Sorry to be a party pooper, but recent data show 247,000 lost their jobs in July! If that isn't bad enough, from the SAME article,

U.S. gross domestic product contracted 1% at an annual rate during the second quarter. That was the fourth-straight quarterly decline in GDP -- the first time that's happened since the government started keeping track in 1947.

When marginally attached and involuntary part-time workers are included, the rate of unemployed or underemployed workers was 16.3% last month, down slightly from June.

Do you see that things are still pretty lousy and that our economy is bleeding jobs? So why all this "glass half full" optimism? A simple way to answer this question is ask who benefits.

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If I were a politician, I would tout these numbers as positive to demonstrate I was "doing something" about the economy. If I were a CEO of a public company, I may want to discuss these numbers positively to encourage optimism and boost my share price. If I just couldn't take that our economy is in shambles and government programs are making things worse, I might just accept the positive spin to sooth my broken spirit.

However, I am a realist. As I have written in the past (Financial Crisis Primer), we are suffering the effects of market distortion of the credit markets and the aftermath. Financial positions are being unwound. Companies are de-leveraging, and lenders are beginning to remember risk management not merely as an academic pursuit, but a requirement to stay in business.

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Will the economy recover? It should, provided that Congress and President Teleprompter don't pass this crushing ObamaCare abomination. It should recover, provided tax policy doesn't punish small business and success. In other words, the market will heal itself if the government keeps its' hands out of it. The inflation damage will soon be with us, since the quadrupling of the national debt beginning in January of 2009.

To all of you who have lost your jobs, I am with you and pray you find new, meaningful work soon. To all of you with a job, keep working hard, but be ready for a double-dip recession. Finally, to all US citizens, contact your members of Congress and strongly urge them to reject ObamaCare.

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Tuesday, August 4, 2009

How Quickly We Forget

Well, well, well. It seems like President Teleprompter can't take a little public ridicule. The Daily Mail, out of the UK, has an article stating that Obama backers call the image "...mean-spirited and dangerous." I guess the "tolerant" left just can't abide by dissent. Chuck Norris wants YOU to get into shape! - Total Gym® Official Store. Try Total Gym® for 30 Days for only $1 - FREE Shipping.

How quickly they forget, however, that on July 29, 2008, Vanity Fair posted a piece of art depicting then President George W. Bush as none other than, you guessed it, the Joker. Cheap? No. 100% Free. Trade stocks for free on Zecco.com. The Free Trading Community. www.zecco.com

Huh, how about that? I don't recall anybody, especially the left, calling that image "mean spirited and dangerous." What I did see in the comments are these gems of kindness and adult conversation:

"I'm saying Bush is just an idiot thug who has been used by Dick Cheney to meet his ends." - Posted 7/30/2008 by deadaluspark

"Bush is obviously the antithesis of this. He can't even construct a freaking sentence without sounding like an idiot." - Posted 7/30/2008 by deadaluspark

"I should add that .....no further evidence of dubya's psychopathology is needed after yesterday's final appalling press conference." - Posted 1/13/2009 by something

I hope everyone has enjoyed this trip down memory lane and the love that comes from the left. Includes 300 FREE Fax Pages per month

Please also note, on a different topic, that the White House wants you tell them if somebody is emailing or talking in opposition to ObamaCare. Here it is, with the link:

There is a lot of disinformation about health insurance reform out there, spanning from control of personal finances to end of life care. These rumors often travel just below the surface via chain emails or through casual conversation. Since we can’t keep track of all of them here at the White House, we’re asking for your help. If you get an email or see something on the web about health insurance reform that seems fishy, send it to flag@whitehouse.gov.

Wow, rat out the dissenters! Resistance is futile! Tell on your neighbors! When is Hillary going to stand back up and say:

I'm sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and disagree with this administration, somehow you're not patriotic. We need to stand up and say we're Americans, and we have the right to debate and disagree with any administration.

I also wonder if any late night, or any comic for that matter, is going to start making fun of Obama? He's had almost 8 months of media and comic immunity. Maybe this poster will loosen them up. Have some fun. Even Bill Clinton was a good sport.

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